machine learning

Machine Learning and NFL running backs draft analysis

NFL Running Back Analysis with Machine Learning

The following is a list of the early round (mostly 1st and 2nd) draft picks, at running back, drafted between 2009 and 2014. Our machine learning running back analysis system was applied to determine what picks were “yes draft” players and which were “no draft” players based only on college stats. The players are rated yes or no if they would have been drafted and the probability the system thinks they fit in that category.

In testing, our system was 86% accurate in finding productive NFL running backs.

*** THIS ANALYSIS IS BASED SOLEY ON COLLEGE STATISTICS OF THE PLAYERS BELOW.

If you picked “yes draft” backs for 2009-2014, you would have had an 86% chance of selecting a productive back.

If you picked “no draft” backs for 2009 – 2014, you would have had a 41% chance of selecting a productive back.

RB data read successfully!

name predict prob

    bernard|giovani [yes] 0.999922
      moreno|knowshon [yes] 0.999879
      wells|chris [yes] 0.999879
      mason|tre [yes] 0.999856
      bell|lavian [yes] 0.999843
      mccoy|lesean [yes] 0.999813
      hillman|ronnie [yes] 0.999795
      sanky|bishop [yes] 0.999777
      hyde|carlos [yes] 0.999777
      hill|jeremy [yes] 0.999757
      williams|ryan [yes] 0.999711
      martin|doug [yes] 0.999622
      james|lamichael [yes] 0.99962
      richardson|trent [yes] 0.999551
      mathews|ryan [yes] 0.999362
      ingram|mark [yes] 0.99917
      ball|montee [yes] 0.996881

    name predict prob

        spiller|cj [no] 0.997899
        sims|charles [no] 0.997508
        brown|donald [no] 0.995403
        lacy|eddie [no] 0.994026
        best|jahvid [no] 0.993481
        vereen|shane [no] 0.993481
        leshoure|mikel [no] 0.98901
        green|shonn [no] 0.988013
        wilson|david [no] 0.983055
        pead|isiah [no] 0.981617
        mccluster|dexter [no] 0.97806
        coffee|glen [no] 0.976095

      Below you can visual where the draft and no draft players stand relative to each other by year and “yes draft” – “no draft”.

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      If you picked “yes draft” backs for 2009-2014, you would have had a 86% chance of selecting a productive back.

      If you picked “no draft” backs for 2009 – 2014, you would have had a 41% chance of selecting a productive back.

      We will soon release our analysis of the 2016 running backs that were drafted.