2018 NFL qb draft prospects Kiper vs. Machine Learning

Below is a comparison of 2018 NFL QB prospects Mel Kiper VS. a machine learning system. We watch no video and only use machine learning and college stats to project if a player should be drafted or not. More specifically our Machine Learning NFL quarterback system predicts if a quarterback will be a franchise type quarterback in the NFL based on the players’ college stats and is trained with superstar and bust draft pick stats to learn how to predict when to draft and not. The list simply reflects a yes or no for a draft or not and the probability that they belong on that list.

Here is our list and then below is Mel Kiper’s list for the QBs for the 2018 draft.

QB data read successfully!

name predict prob
2 Mayfield-Baker [YES] 0.999965
3 Falk-Luke [YES] 0.999244
4 Rudolph-Mason [YES] 0.993547
1 Darnold-Sam [YES] 0.954596

name predict prob
6 Lee-Tanner [NO] 0.996788
2 Allen-Josh [NO] 0.932838
3 Jackson-Lamar [NO] 0.836334
1 Rosen-Josh [NO] 0.632428
4 Litton-Chase [NO] 0.548834
5 Benke-Kurt [NO] 0.541672

Interesting Todd McShay and Mel Kiper are really high on Josh Rosen and also think Josh Allen should go maybe in the first round, but our system would not recommend them to be drafted.

Here is Mel Kiper’s top 10 QBs…

1. Josh Rosen, UCLA
2. Sam Darnold, USC
3. Josh Allen, Wyoming
4. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
5. Drew Lock, Missouri
6. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
7. Lamar Jackson, Louisville
8. Mike White, Western Kentucky
9. Luke Falk, Washington State
10. Kurt Benkert, Virginia

Of Kiper’s top 3 our system would not draft 2 and of his top ten, our system would not draft 4 of the 10 – we have not analyzed Lock or White so 4 of the 8 meaning 50% of his top 8 picks would be avoided by our system. see Kipers 2018 QB draft prospects list

machine learning nfl draft qb prediction system

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