Predicting the 2017 Superbowl winner.

Predicting the Superbowl winner in December is hard, predicting the Superbowl winner in May should be near impossible. However, using Machine learning and some simple statistics, narrowing down the Superbowl winner may not be as difficult as it appears. So let’s get started…

Looking back at the last 10 Superbowls, 80% of the time, the Superbowl winner was ranked in the top 10 (actually top 8) in total defensive yards allowed per game for the prior season. (Less is better) There were two Superbowl winners that were ranked 22nd (2006-07 Colts) and 23rd (2009-10 Saints) in Yards allowed. However, we will go with the 80% and stay in the top 10 defenses from 2015 listed below.

Denver Broncos
Seattle Seahawks
Houston Texans
New York Jets
Arizona Cardinals
Carolina Panthers
Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Now the next statistic we will use to rank the teams is the quarterback “yes draft” “no draft” from our machine learning NFL quarterback analysis system.

Of the last 10 Superbowl winners 90% had a quarterback that was marked as a yes draft. So we will look only at teams that have a “yes draft” starting quarterback.

Starting with Denver, Manning’s retirement leaves Denver with Mark Sanchez and Peyton Lynch. Sanchez was a “no draft.” Paxton Lynch was a “yes draft”, but a rookie quarterback is a stretch to win the Superbowl. So we will take Denver off the list.

Seattle has Russel Wilson and he is a “yes draft” we will leave Seattle on the Superbowl winner possible list.

The Houston Texans have Brock Osweiler who left Denver. Osweiler is a “no draft” so we will take the Texans off the list.

The Jets “have”, QB issues. Despite Geno Smith being a “yes draft” the Jets seem to want Ryan Fitzpatrick back – he is a “no draft.” The topper for the Jets is that our system ranks the Christian Hackenberg a “no draft” too. Jets are off the list.

The Arizona Cardinals have quarterback Carson Palmer. Palmer is a “yes draft” and we leave them on the list with a shot at the Superbowl.

The Carolina Panthers’ Cam Newton is a “yes draft” and they are on the list.

Alex Smith of the Kansas City Chiefs is a “yes draft” and we will leave them on the list.

The Baltimore Ravens Quarterback Joe Flacco is a “yes draft” and the Ravens are on the list.

Tom Brady is a “yes draft” and his resume speaks for itself. The Pats are on the list.

Finally, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have Jameis Winston. Winston is a “yes draft” and the Bucs are on the list.

So this is our shortlist for the Superbowl contenders for 2017. I know you probably wanted one name, but it’s only May!!!!!!

Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
Carolina Panthers
Kansas City Chiefs
Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots
Tampa Bay Buccaneers