Predicting the 2018 Super Bowl Winner with Machine Learning

Predicting the 2018 Super Bowl winner.

Last year the Patriots were are our short list made in May and they won the Super Bowl.

Predicting the Superbowl winner in December is hard, predicting the Super Bowl winner in June should be near impossible. However, using Machine learning and some simple statistics, narrowing down the Superbowl winner may not be as difficult as it appears. So let’s get started…

Looking back at the last 10 Superbowls, 80% of the time, the Superbowl winner was ranked in the top 10 (actually top 8) in total defensive yards allowed per game for the prior season. (Less is better) There were two Superbowl winners that were ranked 22nd (2006-07 Colts) and 23rd (2009-10 Saints) in Yards allowed. However, we will go with the 80% and stay in the top 10 defenses from 2016 listed below.

Houston Texans
Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings
Denver Broncos
Seattle Seahawks
Jacksonville Jaguars
Baltimore Ravens
New England Patriots
Los Angeles Rams
New York Giants

Now the next statistic we will use to rank the teams is the quarterback “yes draft” “no draft” from our machine learning NFL franchise quarterback prediction system.

Of the last 10 Superbowl winners 90% had a quarterback that was marked as a yes draft. So we will look only at teams that have a “yes draft” starting quarterback.

Houston Drafted Deshaun Watson from Clemson and he is a “yes draft” and was our systems second pick behind Mitch Trubisky. Despite being a rookie QB, the Texans are on the list.

The Arizona Cardinals have quarterback Carson Palmer. Palmer is a “yes draft” and we leave them on the list with a shot at the Super Bowl.

It is unclear if the Minnesota Viking will have Teddy Bridgewater back this year. He is a yes draft with our machine learning franchise quarterback system – until we can confirm his return, the Vikings are off the list as Bradford is a “no draft”.

Denver has Trevor Simeon as their quarterback – he is a “no draft” and the Broncos are off the list.

Seattle has Russel Wilson and he is a “yes draft” we will leave Seattle on the Superbowl winner possible list.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have Blake Bortles and he is a “yes draft” – Jacksonville is on the list.

The Baltimore Ravens Quarterback Joe Flacco is a “yes draft” and the Ravens are on the list.

Tom Brady is a “yes draft” and his resume speaks for itself. The Pats are on the list.

The Rams have Jared Goff and he is a “yes draft” – assuming Goff starts the Rams are on the list.

Finally, the Giants have Eli Manning at QB and he is definitely a yes draft as he makes up part of our model for selecting a franchise quarterback.

So this is our shortlist for the Super Bowl contenders for 2018 in June – before training camp even starts.

Texans
Cardinals
Seahawks
Jaguars
Ravens
Patriots
Rams
Giants