Machine Learning Picks Superbowl Quarterbacks

Our Machine Learning System Helps Identify Superbowl winning Quarterbacks based only college statistics.

The following is a list of the Super Bowl winning teams and the quarterbacks for the last 21 years. We were unable to find sufficient college data to analyze Kurt Warner.

Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman
Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre
Super Bowl 32. John Elway
Super Bowl 33. John Elway
Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner (insufficient college stats)
Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer
Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady
Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson
Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning
Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco
Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson
Super Bowl 49: Tom Brady
Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning

We analyzed all of these quarterbacks with our machine learning system. The system considers ONLY college statistics of the quarterbacks. It classifies the QB as a draft or no draft and assigns a probability. The results are amazing (see below):

Yes Draft
aikman|troy – [yes] 68.04%
elway|john – [yes] 87.82%
brady|tom – [yes] 51.46%
roethlesberger|ben – [yes] 79.81%
manning|peyton – [yes] 56.32%
manning|eli – [yes] 84.23%
brees|drew – [yes] 99.82%
flacco|joe – [yes] 78.36%
wilson|russel – [yes] 81.45%

No Draft
dilfer|trent – [no] 70.58%
johnson|brad – [no] 98.53%
favre|brett – [no] 81.53%
rodgers|aaron – [no] 62.96% ***

***Left college after 2 years affecting stats

So of the 20 Superbowl wins, the yes picks of the system had 16 of the 20 or 80% of the wins. The no picks had 4 wins and there were no repeat winners. The no picks had 20% of the Superbowl wins in the last 20. We would not bet against Aaron Rodgers repeating as his college stats are skewed by leaving college after 2 year.